There is ongoing debate about whether markets behave in rational ways.
The efficient market hypothesis suggests the stock market does a good job of setting share prices which reflect all relevant information. In other words, stocks generally trade at fair value.
The Economist reported there are two issues efficient market theorists have trouble explaining. The first is market bubbles, “where entire markets get out of whack with traditional valuation measures and then collapse.” The other is pricing anomalies. For instance, value stocks are inexpensive relative to their asset values and tend to outperform over the long term.
During the past few weeks, U.S. stock markets have recovered from losses suffered earlier in the year and moved into positive territory for 2016. The shift into positive territory has some suggesting markets may not be correctly priced, but there is disagreement about whether it currently is overvalued or undervalued.
According to Barron’s, the recent strong performance of U.S. stock markets hasn’t been inspired by sound decisions and rational economic behavior. “The market’s valuation, at 17 times consensus analyst earnings-per-share estimates for 2016, looks stretched again, given that easy monetary policy and rising oil prices – not earnings growth – are responsible.”
Wharton Professor of Finance Jeremy Siegel disagreed. “On an absolute basis [the stock market is] slightly more highly valued than average but relative to interest rates, which are extremely low, it is actually undervalued in my opinion.”
Investors who believe markets perform well most of the time, but not all of the time, may want to take opportunities like these to look for companies whose shares may be mispriced, as well.
|Data as of 3/18/16||1-Week||Y-T-D||1-Year||3-Year||5-Year||10-Year|
|Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)||1.4%||0.3%||-2.4%||9.7%||9.9%||4.6%|
|Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.||1.6||-1.0||-11.0||-1.6||-0.9||-0.3|
|10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)||1.9||NA||2.0||2.0||3.3||4.7|
|DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index||2.2||4.0||2.4||9.8||11.8||6.3|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
Here’s a milestone you don’t reach until your seventies. The major milestones of older Americans are not attended with the same sense of wonder that accompanies the major milestones of younger Americans. Sure, registering for Social Security benefits and signing up for Medicare are rites of passage, but they don’t hold a candle to earning your driver’s license, receiving your first kiss, winning your first promotion, or dancing at your wedding.
If you have retirement accounts when you become a septuagenarian, then you’ll encounter a milestone the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) strongly encourages you to remember. Beginning in year you turn 70½, you must begin taking required minimum distributions (RMDs) from most of your retirement accounts. For the first year the deadline for taking RMDs is April 1 of the year, following the year in which you reach age 70½. Once you start, you must take RMDs by December 31 every year. If you don’t, you’ll owe some hefty penalty taxes. Forbes offered this list:
- Traditional IRAs
- Rollover IRAs
- Inherited IRAs
- SEP IRAs
- SIMPLE IRAs
- 401(k), 403(b), and 457(b) plan accounts (qualified worksite retirement plans)
- Keogh plans
There currently are no RMDs for Roth IRAs, unless the accounts were inherited.
If you have more than one qualifying IRA, then a separate RMD must be calculated for each account. If you want to withdraw a portion of each IRA, you can, but it may prove simpler to take the entire amount due from a single IRA.
The rules for IRAs and qualified worksite retirement plans (401(k)) are different. If you have a worksite retirement account, the RMD must be taken from that account. However, if you are still working and not retired from that company, you do not have to take an RMD until you retire.
If you would prefer to have some help figuring out the correct amount when RMDs are due, contact your financial professional.
|Fredrick J. Livingston, CFP, AIF||Mark H. Winston, CFP, AIF|
|Securities offered through LPL Financial, LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.
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http://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-rise-more-than-1-now-in-the-black-for-2016t-1458360051?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-21-16_Barrons-Stocks_Rise_More_than_1_Percent-Now_in_the_Black_for_2016-Footnote_3.pdf)
https://www.irs.gov/Retirement-Plans/Plan-Participant,-Employee/Retirement-Topics-Required-Minimum-Distributions (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/03-21-16_IRS-Required_Minimum_Distributions-Footnote_7.pdf)